Things had been warming up, and half the ice sheets covering Europe and Canada had already melted. The expression three sheets to the wind. A muddle-through scenario assumes that we would mobilize our scientific and technological resources well in advance of any abrupt cooling problem, but that the solution wouldn't be simple. This was posited in 1797 by the Anglo-American physicist Sir Benjamin Thompson (later known, after he moved to Bavaria, as Count Rumford of the Holy Roman Empire), who also posited that, if merely to compensate, there would have to be a warmer northbound current as well. We need to make sure that no business-as-usual climate variation, such as an El Niño or the North Atlantic Oscillation, can push our climate onto the slippery slope and into an abrupt cooling.
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Define 3 Sheets To The Wind
There is another part of the world with the same good soil, within the same latitudinal band, which we can use for a quick comparison. These northern ice sheets were as high as Greenland's mountains, obstacles sufficient to force the jet stream to make a detour. This cold period, known as the Younger Dryas, is named for the pollen of a tundra flower that turned up in a lake bed in Denmark when it shouldn't have. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crosswords. Our civilizations began to emerge right after the continental ice sheets melted about 10, 000 years ago. Recovery would be very slow. Europe's climate could become more like Siberia's. Canada lacks Europe's winter warmth and rainfall, because it has no equivalent of the North Atlantic Current to preheat its eastbound weather systems. Any meltwater coming in behind the dam stayed there. It's also clear that sufficient global warming could trigger an abrupt cooling in at least two ways—by increasing high-latitude rainfall or by melting Greenland's ice, both of which could put enough fresh water into the ocean surface to suppress flushing.
They even show the flips. Then, about 11, 400 years ago, things suddenly warmed up again, and the earliest agricultural villages were established in the Middle East. Of particular importance are combinations of climate variations—this winter, for example, we are experiencing both an El Niño and a North Atlantic Oscillation—because such combinations can add up to much more than the sum of their parts. Were fjord floods causing flushing to fail, because the downwelling sites were fairly close to the fjords, it is obvious that we could solve the problem. Eventually such ice dams break, with spectacular results. Again, the difference between them amounts to nine to eighteen degrees—a range that may depend on how much ice there is to slow the responses. Define 3 sheets to the wind. Thus the entire lake can empty quickly. A nice little Amazon-sized waterfall flows over the ridge that connects Spain with Morocco, 800 feet below the surface of the strait. Futurists have learned to bracket the future with alternative scenarios, each of which captures important features that cluster together, each of which is compact enough to be seen as a narrative on a human scale. I hope never to see a failure of the northernmost loop of the North Atlantic Current, because the result would be a population crash that would take much of civilization with it, all within a decade. A remarkable amount of specious reasoning is often encountered when we contemplate reducing carbon-dioxide emissions. We need heat in the right places, such as the Greenland Sea, and not in others right next door, such as Greenland itself.
Salt circulates, because evaporation up north causes it to sink and be carried south by deep currents. Its effects are clearly global too, inasmuch as it is part of a long "salt conveyor" current that extends through the southern oceans into the Pacific. When the ice cores demonstrated the abrupt onset of the Younger Dryas, researchers wanted to know how widespread this event was. Huge amounts of seawater sink at known downwelling sites every winter, with the water heading south when it reaches the bottom. They might not be the end of Homo sapiens—written knowledge and elementary education might well endure—but the world after such a population crash would certainly be full of despotic governments that hated their neighbors because of recent atrocities.
The Expression Three Sheets To The Wind
Water that evaporates leaves its salt behind; the resulting saltier water is heavier and thus sinks. It would be especially nice to see another dozen major groups of scientists doing climate simulations, discovering the intervention mistakes as quickly as possible and learning from them. It keeps northern Europe about nine to eighteen degrees warmer in the winter than comparable latitudes elsewhere—except when it fails. The modern world is full of objects and systems that exhibit "bistable" modes, with thresholds for flipping. The high state of climate seems to involve ocean currents that deliver an extraordinary amount of heat to the vicinity of Iceland and Norway. Feedbacks are what determine thresholds, where one mode flips into another. We puzzle over oddities, such as the climate of Europe.
An abrupt cooling could happen now, and the world might not warm up again for a long time: it looks as if the last warm period, having lasted 13, 000 years, came to an end with an abrupt, prolonged cooling. That increased quantities of greenhouse gases will lead to global warming is as solid a scientific prediction as can be found, but other things influence climate too, and some people try to escape confronting the consequences of our pumping more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by supposing that something will come along miraculously to counteract them. Water is densest at about 39°F (a typical refrigerator setting—anything that you take out of the refrigerator, whether you place it on the kitchen counter or move it to the freezer, is going to expand a little). To the long list of predicted consequences of global warming—stronger storms, methane release, habitat changes, ice-sheet melting, rising seas, stronger El Niños, killer heat waves—we must now add an abrupt, catastrophic cooling. That's how our warm period might end too. Oslo is nearly at 60°N, as are Stockholm, Helsinki, and St. Petersburg; continue due east and you'll encounter Anchorage. Indeed, we've had an unprecedented period of climate stability. Subarctic ocean currents were reaching the southern California coastline, and Santa Barbara must have been as cold as Juneau is now. Though combating global warming is obviously on the agenda for preventing a cold flip, we could easily be blindsided by stability problems if we allow global warming per se to remain the main focus of our climate-change efforts. We must be careful not to think of an abrupt cooling in response to global warming as just another self-regulatory device, a control system for cooling things down when it gets too hot. Twice a year they sink, carrying their load of atmospheric gases downward. The back and forth of the ice started 2. Up to this point in the story none of the broad conclusions is particularly speculative. What could possibly halt the salt-conveyor belt that brings tropical heat so much farther north and limits the formation of ice sheets?
Water falling as snow on Greenland carries an isotopic "fingerprint" of what the temperature was like en route. In 1984, when I first heard about the startling news from the ice cores, the implications were unclear—there seemed to be other ways of interpreting the data from Greenland. There is also a great deal of unsalted water in Greenland's glaciers, just uphill from the major salt sinks. Tropical swamps decrease their production of methane at the same time that Europe cools, and the Gobi Desert whips much more dust into the air. Thus we might dig a wide sea-level Panama Canal in stages, carefully managing the changeover. Our goal must be to stabilize the climate in its favorable mode and ensure that enough equatorial heat continues to flow into the waters around Greenland and Norway. Thermostats tend to activate heating or cooling mechanisms abruptly—also an example of a system that pushes back. Large-scale flushing at both those sites is certainly a highly variable process, and perhaps a somewhat fragile one as well. One of the most shocking scientific realizations of all time has slowly been dawning on us: the earth's climate does great flip-flops every few thousand years, and with breathtaking speed. There seems to be no way of escaping the conclusion that global climate flips occur frequently and abruptly. Because water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas, this decrease in average humidity would cool things globally. The return to ice-age temperatures lasted 1, 300 years.
The Sheet In 3 Sheets To The Wind Crosswords
Although I don't consider this scenario to be the most likely one, it is possible that solutions could turn out to be cheap and easy, and that another abrupt cooling isn't inevitable. A meteor strike that killed most of the population in a month would not be as serious as an abrupt cooling that eventually killed just as many. Fatalism, in other words, might well be foolish. This major change in ocean circulation, along with a climate that had already been slowly cooling for millions of years, led not only to ice accumulation most of the time but also to climatic instability, with flips every few thousand years or so. Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past. It then crossed the Atlantic and passed near the Shetland Islands around 1976. There is, increasingly, international cooperation in response to catastrophe—but no country is going to be able to rely on a stored agricultural surplus for even a year, and any country will be reluctant to give away part of its surplus. Once the dam is breached, the rushing waters erode an ever wider and deeper path. Whole sections of a glacier, lifted up by the tides, may snap off at the "hinge" and become icebergs. Because such a cooling would occur too quickly for us to make readjustments in agricultural productivity and supply, it would be a potentially civilization-shattering affair, likely to cause an unprecedented population crash.
An abrupt cooling got started 8, 200 years ago, but it aborted within a century, and the temperature changes since then have been gradual in comparison. The cold, dry winds blowing eastward off Canada evaporate the surface waters of the North Atlantic Current, and leave behind all their salt. A brief, large flood of fresh water might nudge us toward an abrupt cooling even if the dilution were insignificant when averaged over time. By 125, 000 years ago Homo sapienshad evolved from our ancestor species—so the whiplash climate changes of the last ice age affected people much like us. We can design for that in computer models of climate, just as architects design earthquake-resistant skyscrapers. We might, for example, anchor bargeloads of evaporation-enhancing surfactants (used in the southwest corner of the Dead Sea to speed potash production) upwind from critical downwelling sites, letting winds spread them over the ocean surface all winter, just to ensure later flushing. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. But we may not have centuries for acquiring wisdom, and it would be wise to compress our learning into the years immediately ahead. Europe is an anomaly.
For example, I can imagine that ocean currents carrying more warm surface waters north or south from the equatorial regions might, in consequence, cool the Equator somewhat. A lake surface cooling down in the autumn will eventually sink into the less-dense-because-warmer waters below, mixing things up. A cheap-fix scenario, such as building or bombing a dam, presumes that we know enough to prevent trouble, or to nip a developing problem in the bud. But the regional record is poorly understood, and I know at least one reason why. But sometimes a glacial surge will act like an avalanche that blocks a road, as happened when Alaska's Hubbard glacier surged into the Russell fjord in May of 1986. We now know that there's nothing "glacially slow" about temperature change: superimposed on the gradual, long-term cycle have been dozens of abrupt warmings and coolings that lasted only centuries.
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